Trading Retro #1

Electricity prices like these can make (or break) your year

On March 24th, 2022, West Texas price skyrocketed to nearly $1000/MWh. The cool part: Gaiascope anticipated this and generated >$150,000 over six hours…not bad day’s work for our little company.

On March 24th, Load Zone West price in Texas hit a high of $993/MWh, averaging $173/MWh over the course of the day:

Fig. 1: Real-Time Price of Load Zone West, $/MWh, 3/24/2022

The primary driver of this price spike was grid congestion: high regional demand and low output from local wind farms and the Morgan Creek natural gas plant resulted in demand needing to be met by more expensive, less accessible generation, which overloaded transmission lines in the region.

Gaiascope forecasted these dynamics the day prior and submitted the following related bids.

Fig. 2: Bids and Volumes Submitted into Day-Ahead Market

Gaiascope’s forecast assumed:

  • 3 specific transmission elements would be congested: MGSES_MR1H, HARGRO_TWINBU1_1 and 190T152_1.

  • Regional wind output would be low.

  • Output from the plants most capable of alleviating this congestion would be low:

    • Morgan Creek natural gas plant (397 MW capacity)

    • Big Spring waste heat plant (18 MW)

    • Sweetwater battery energy storage (9.9 MW)

    • Snyder battery energy storage (9.9 MW)

Fig. 3: Gaiascope generation forecast for Morgan Creek natural gas plant, 3/24/22

Fig. 4: Gaiascope generation forecast for Big Spring waste heat plant, 3/24/22

Fig. 5: Gaiascope regional wind generation forecast vs. actual, 3/24/22

Fig. 6: Gaiascope regional demand forecast vs. actual, 3/24/22

All in all, correctly anticipating this price spike resulted in $157,612 of revenue, highlighting the value of accurate, actionable price forecasts.

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To learn more about Gaiascope’s capabilities, please inquire on our Contact Us page or email us at founders@gaia-scope.com.

THE FOREGOING DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER TO SELL, OR A SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY, SECURITIES IN ANY JURISDICTION IN WHICH IT IS UNLAWFUL TO MAKE SUCH AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION.